Here’s Why The San Francisco 49ers Will Win Super Bowl 58

Now that the Kansas City Chiefs have defied the odds and reached Super Bowl LVIII, the presence of Patrick Mahomes at quarterback places doubt on whether the San Francisco 49ers will win the game like current betting lines suggest they’ll do.

When Super Bowl betting lines debuted, the 49ers were granted a one-point edge over KC. In the days that followed, that point spread grew to 2.5 before settling down to the 2 points that it has rested at for the past 72 hours.

The 49ers hold an advantage in the point spread because of their roster and their efforts during the regular season. What’s not factoring into current betting lines is San Francisco’s struggles during the NFL Playoffs against opponents they should have had an easier time with.

The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions can hold their heads high and look toward a positive future after what they’ve accomplished this year. That said, neither team should have been able to hang with San Francisco at full strength and health in Santa Clara.

The same cannot be said for the Chiefs, as they easily dispatched the Miami Dolphins at home and then won two games on the road as underdogs against the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens.

One element of SF’s game plan that we believe will lead them to victory and exploit the KC defense is a heavy dose of running back Christian McCaffrey. No longer is Kyle Shanahan concerned about McCaffrey’s pitch count, opening the door to a potential 30+ touches for Christian this Sunday.

Super Bowl prop bets for Christian McCaffrey’s stat totals back up our belief of his heavy usage.

Total Rushing Attempts In The Game – Christian McCaffrey (SF)

  • Over 18.5 -125
  • Under 18.5 -105

Total Rushing Yards In SB LVIII – Christian McCaffrey (SF)

  • Over 91.5 -110
  • Under 91.5 -120

Total Receptions – Christian McCaffrey (SF)

  • Over 4.5 -135
  • Under 4.5 +105

Total Receiving Yards – Christian McCaffrey (SF)

  • Over 34.5 -115
  • Under 34.5 -115

Total Rushing And Receiving Yards – Christian McCaffrey (SF)

  • Over 130.5 -115
  • Under 130.5 -115

Will Christian McCaffrey (SF) Score a Rushing Touchdown?

  • Yes (TD Scored) -165
  • No (TD Scored) +125

The above Super Bowl odds indicate the following performance for McCaffrey:

  • 20 carries, 90 yards, 1 touchdown
  • 5 receptions, 35 yards

We find the above projections to be moderate. With so much on the line and the offseason just sixty minutes of football away, there’s no reason to max out the touches that McCaffrey will get on Sunday.

Despite being the clear-cut best running back in the game today, McCaffrey is also safe with the football. He’s only lost four fumbles to an opposing team during his seven-year NFL career.

With only one game remaining in 2023-24, count on Christian McCaffrey to be a big factor in why the Super Bowl odds that project a 49ers win end up being accurate.

Bovada (Bovada LV Review), The Guardian, ESPN