Super Bowl 54 Betting Analysis: Can Kansas City Win a Close, High-Scoring Game?

It’s the Monday before Super Bowl 54, and the Super Bowl betting odds are holding steady.  The Chiefs’ odds to win Super Bowl 54 have remained the same over the weekend with sportsbooks favoring Kansas City by 1.5 points, and the over/under has leveled out at 55.

This betting line suggests that the Kansas City Chiefs will defeat the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 54 by a score of roughly 28.5 to 27. 

Last Friday, we published an article analyzing the games that the 49ers played this year, where both teams scored at least 24 points.  Today we’ll have a look at the games where the Chiefs were involved in high scoring shootouts, and how they fared. 

  • Week One: Kansas City 40 – Jacksonville 26

    This game was never close.  The score was 37-13, with 11:02 remaining in the fourth quarter.   Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Gardner Minshew orchestrated two late touchdown drives to make the final score respectable. Still, the Chiefs were firing on all offensive cylinders and put the Jaguars away early. 

  • Week Three: Kansas City 33 – Baltimore 28

    This is another game where the Chiefs tried to put away their opponent early.  LeSean McCoy received a touchdown pass from Mahomes with 2:15 remaining in the third quarter to make the score 30-13.  Baltimore chipped away at the lead with two late touchdowns, but it wasn’t enough to catch the Chiefs.  Kansas City established a balanced offense, and Baltimore didn’t have an answer for Mahomes’ passing. 

  • Week Four: Kansas City 34 – Detroit 30

    The Detroit Lions jumped out to a quick ten-point lead in the first quarter.  The Chiefs fought back, and the game was tied 13-13 at halftime.  Like a heavyweight boxing match, these two teams threw haymakers at one another until Kansas City put Detroit away with a Darrel Williams rushing touchdown with 0:23 to go in the game.   The Chiefs were lifted by a 100-yard fumble return touchdown by Bashaud Breeland in the 3rd quarter.  Patrick Mahomes didn’t throw any touchdowns or interceptions.  It was a team effort that delivered the W for the Chiefs.

  • Week Six: Houston 31 – Kansas City 24

    Kansas City appeared to have the game in control early, building a 10-0 lead in the first quarter.  Houston stormed back and scored quickly, taking a 23-17 lead into halftime.  The Texans sealed the victory with a Deshaun Watson quarterback keeper for a 1-yard touchdown with 6:24 remaining in the game.  Houston was able to shut down the running game of the Chiefs, allowing only 53 yards on the ground and making them one dimensional on offense.  The passing game for the Chiefs was still strong, with Mahomes passing for 273 yards with three touchdowns and one interception.  This proves two things.  One, it may not be possible to shut down the passing efforts of Mahomes.  Two, to beat the Chiefs, the opposing defense needs to respect the run.

  • Week Ten: Tennessee 35 – Kansas City 32

    This game played out similarly to the Detroit game from week four.  The Chiefs built an early 10-0 lead, but the game was 13-13 at halftime.  The Titans and Chiefs traded scores in the second half, in a game where the team that possessed the ball last would likely win.  The Titans scored the go-ahead touchdown with 0:32 remaining in the game with a 23-yard Ryan Tannehill to Adam Humphries pass.  Everything seemed to be clicking for the Kansas City offense, so this is merely a case of them being outscored in a close game.  The Titans were dedicated to the run game, giving Derrick Henry 23 carries for 188 yards and two scores.  The Chiefs’ defense did not have an answer for Henry and couldn’t stop the Titans on the final drive of the game. 

  • Divisional Round of Playoffs: Kansas City 51 – Houston 31

    The Houston Texans entered the game with confidence, handing the Chiefs a rare defeat earlier in the season in week six.  Houston jumped out to a 24-0 lead early in the second quarter, and many assumed that Andy Reid’s quest for a Super Bowl title will have to wait for yet another year.  The Chiefs had other plans, as they rallied to score four touchdowns in the second quarter and took a lead of 28-24 into halftime.  The game would never be in doubt after that as the Chiefs administered an offensive clinic that Houston had no answer for.  Kansas City has proven that they can overcome an early, seemingly insurmountable deficit, and not only win but blow the other team out.  I do not envy coaches that are trying to prep to defend against the Kansas City offense.

  • Conference Championship Game: Kansas City 35 – Tennessee 24

    Once again, the Kansas City found themselves down 10-0 early in the first half but managed to carry a lead into halftime with a score of 21-17.  The Titans scored a late touchdown to make the final score a respectable 35-24, but Kansas City’s 28 unanswered points put Tennessee away early in the fourth quarter.  The Titans defense was able to contain the Chiefs running game and keep the score close for a while, but Patrick Mahomes picked up the slack with a few runs of his own, including a 27-yard touchdown run just before halftime.

The Chiefs are 5-2 over these seven games.  The only game where the final score was within 3 points ended up being a loss to Tennessee. 

The only close score victory that the Chiefs have all year is a 26-23 victory over Minnesota in week nine, and Patrick Mahomes did not play in the game due to injury. 

The odds the Chiefs’ win Super Bowl 54 are holding strong, but they don’t have a victory in the books for 2019 that resembles the predictions of the oddsmakers.  Keep this in mind when considering your Super Bowl betting options. 

For this analysis, we removed the week ten loss to Green Bay because Patrick Mahomes was injured and did not play.