Why You Should Bet on the Patriots to Win Super Bowl LIII at 7-to-1 Odds
The New England Patriots are done for, and the window for Brady and Belichick to win another Super Bowl is shutting fast.
Or that’s what a lot of people have been saying lately anyways.
While those who say that have a convincing case, especially after being handed two straight losses from the Steelers and Dolphins, heading into Week 15, the Patriots have potentially the best value on odds to win Super Bowl 53 out of any of the playoff contenders.
Super Bowl 53 – Odds to Win
Super Bowl 53 Odds provided by Bovada.
- NFL Team SB53 Odds
- New Orleans Saints +260
- Los Angeles Rams +425
- Kansas City Chiefs +550
- New England Patriots +700
- Los Angeles Chargers +750
- Chicago Bears +800
- Houston Texans +1800
- Pittsburgh Steelers +1800
- Baltimore Ravens +2700
- Dallas Cowboys +2700
- Indianapolis Colts +3300
- Seattle Seahawks +3800
- Philadelphia Eagles +4000
- Minnesota Vikings +4500
- Tennessee Titans +6000
- Cleveland Browns +15000
- Carolina Panthers +20000
- Washington Redskins +20000
- Miami Dolphins +25000
The Patriots (9-5) were +500 heading into Week 14 but fell to +700 after the loss on Sunday to the Steelers.
This is likely because the team is no longer in the driver’s seat to get the No. 2 AFC seed in the playoffs, losing a first-round bye and home-field advantage as a result.
The Texans (10-4) took the No. 2 spot from the Patriots, and the Chiefs (11-3) and Chargers (11-3) are in a dead-heat for the No. 1 seed, but since they are in the same division, one team will likely capture the top seed will the other will be a wild card team.
Regardless, the Patriots would need to beat the Bills and Jets and have the Texans lose one of their final two games against either the Eagles (likely) or Jaguars to reclaim the No. 2 seed.
Even if the Patriots don’t get the No. 2 seed, the +700 is still a great value because it presents an ideal time to hedge your bet on a Super Bowl winner.
If all things remained constant, the Patriots would face the Ravens in the first round, the Texans in the second round, and likely the Chiefs in the AFC Championship.
But let’s say the Pats swipe the No. 2 seed from the Texans in the next two weeks and everything else remains the same, Brady and company would likely play the Chargers in the second round and either the Texans/Chiefs in the AFC Championship.
Let’s not forget the Patriots beat the Texans 27-20 in Week 1 and handled the Chiefs 43-40 in Week 6 – both were played in Foxboro.
To find the probability of the Pats winning the Super Bowl based on the odds from Bovada, we’ll use 100 / (Odds + 100).
After entering in +700, we now know the Patriots have a 12.5% chance to win to all, according to Bovada.
But that’s the thing: We don’t need them to win it all. Instead, we just need them to make it to the Super Bowl.
If you bet 100 units on the Patriots to win it all this season at +700, and they do win Super Bowl 53, you’ll win a total of 800 units. Not bad for a team that won it two years ago and appeared in the big game last season.
However, the reason we want to hedge our bet is to guarantee a return on investment (ROI) and there’s a lot of ways this could play out, but to guarantee a profit, we must bet on the NFC champion in the Super Bowl – specifically, the money line as well.
Since there’s no way to tell which of the six NFC seeds will come out on top, it’s impossible to know what the money line will be.
Just remember: if we take the +700 on the Patriots now, and they make it to the Super Bowl, then anything up to -700 on the money line for the NFC Champion will be a profit – not bad for that’s been to more Super Bowls than any team this century.