Depending on where you look, you can find thousands of Super Bowl prop bets for this Sunday. These props include game props, score props, alternative spreads and scoring lines, halftime entertainment and much more. While prop bets are an interesting addition to the betting scheme, they are also a pitfall for novice bettors.
It is easy to get tied up into props because of your assumed likelihood of something happening. The truth is, the Super Bowl prop betting market is dense because that is the way it is designed by sportsbooks. They stand to make the most money on people wagering on ridiculous things to happen in the game. From a betting standpoint, you can make a lot of money on props, but you have higher odds of losing all your winnings based on a few poorly placed props. We highlighted some of the more sound props you can make heading into the big game.
Don’t bet on the Patriots scoring in the first quarter. While this may seem likely given the Patriots’ offensive strengths, and the fact they have QB Tom Brady, the Patriots have actually never scored any points in the first quarter. This includes all 7 of their previous Super Bowls. Couple their odd stat about never scoring in the first quarter with the fact that the Eagles have a tough defense and you’ve got the recipe for a successful ‘No’ bet.
You can find several different props surrounding the Patriots scoring in the first quarter. It is best to stay away from all of them. These include betting on the Pats to score in every quarter, betting on the first quarter to be the highest-scoring, the Patriots being above ‘x’ points at halftime (depends on the number, stay away from high scores, as they likely will not score until the second quarter), among others.
If you find the option of betting on Eagles RB Jay Ajayi to have over 24.5 receiving yards—take it. The Patriots seem to have a tough time containing running backs that go out for a pass. In both of their previous Playoff games, Ajayi managed over 25 receiving yards. This pass-threat helps the Eagles offense from a scoring perspective, but it also helps from a prop betting angle.
Speaking of the Eagles rush, take the over on total Eagles rushing yards. They have 3 running backs that pose threats to the Patriots defense. The Pats have also had some issues stopping the run this season and in the Playoffs. They allowed Jags RB Leonard Fournette to put up 76 rushing yards. Jacksonville does not have as much depth as Philadelphia at this position, so taking the Eagles to hit over a prescribed rushing yard amount seems like a solid move.
On betting which team will accrue the most penalty yards, take the Eagles all day. Call it referee bias or strong discipline, the Pats seem to not be flagged often. For example, they were only flagged once in the AFC Championship. They seem to have a good ability of baiting their opponents into penalties. The Eagles being one of the most penalized teams this season, taking this bet seems like a no-brainer.
There are numerous prop bets you can make, but as a general rule of them, stay away from the ludicrous ones unless you have money to blow. Betting on what color shirt Belichick will wear is not as wise of a bet as betting on the Eagles to have a strong running performance. Betting the over/under on how many times ‘deflategate’ is mentioned in the broadcast isn’t as smart as taking the over/under on penalties called against the Eagles. Props are a blessing and a curse in regards to legal Super Bowl betting, the trick is being able to navigate them.